David Paul's three rules · daily bars

Three-Rule Tracker

Checks every trading day against three rules: take the trade that feels difficult, trade against the short-term trend when it fights the long-term trend, and look for where the crowd keeps its stop losses. When all three line up, it signals a buy or a sell.

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Price and rule strip

last 260 sessions · hover for detail
200-day avg (long-term trend) 10-day avg (short-term trend) 10-day swing low / high (stop zones) buy-side rule true sell-side rule true

10-year backtest

5 bps round trip · recomputed from live bars

Enter at the close when all three rules agree. Exit when the short-term trend rejoins the long-term trend (close crosses back over the 10-day average), when price breaks a stop placed just beyond the swept swing level, or after 15 sessions.

three rulesbuy and hold

Trades, newest first

Across 13 instruments

Click a row to load that instrument above. Green marks the better of the rules and buy-and-hold. The full report is in BACKTEST.md in the repository.

The rulebook as coded

RULE 1

Take the trade that feels difficult

A good entry usually feels uncomfortable: buying after several hard down days, or selling after a sharp rally. Measured with 2-day RSI. Buy side: RSI(2) ≤ 15. Sell side: RSI(2) ≥ 85.

RULE 2

Fade the short-term trend when it fights the long-term trend

Long-term trend is the 200-day average, short-term is the 10-day. Buy side: close > 200d and close < 10d (pullback in an uptrend). Sell side: close < 200d and close > 10d (bounce in a downtrend).

RULE 3

Know where the crowd's stops are

Most traders put stops just past the most recent swing. Buy side: within the last 3 sessions price traded below the prior 10-day low, so those stops are flushed. Sell side: price traded above the prior 10-day high. Our own stop sits 0.25 ATR beyond the swept extreme.

Rules come from the caption of the coingrams reel quoting David Paul (MoneyShow). The thresholds above are this tracker's own reading of them, not his published parameters. Data: Yahoo Finance daily bars. Futures use the front-month continuous contract. This is a study tool, not investment advice.